* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BARBARA EP022007 05/31/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 48 50 55 59 62 61 60 62 61 61 V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 48 50 55 59 62 61 60 62 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 41 42 44 48 51 55 58 59 60 61 SHEAR (KTS) 16 13 12 10 9 7 11 9 18 19 16 11 13 SHEAR DIR 115 123 138 132 149 107 123 117 122 132 130 126 123 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 166 166 166 166 164 164 161 158 157 157 157 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 8 7 8 7 9 7 9 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 70 69 75 73 71 66 63 59 61 55 56 58 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 11 9 9 7 6 5 4 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 34 42 48 46 29 22 17 27 35 31 37 32 36 200 MB DIV 67 92 87 56 42 61 74 80 78 93 71 78 87 LAND (KM) 282 309 336 329 322 277 234 191 129 67 29 16 1 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.0 12.7 12.8 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.7 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 96.7 96.7 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.2 96.0 95.9 95.8 96.1 96.6 97.1 97.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 19. 25. 30. 32. 33. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 10. 15. 19. 23. 22. 21. 22. 21. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 8. 10. 15. 19. 22. 21. 20. 22. 21. 21. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 BARBARA 05/31/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 BARBARA 05/31/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY