* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL922007 05/31/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 32 31 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 27 25 29 30 29 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 23 25 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 26 37 44 52 55 56 56 50 46 38 43 39 32
SHEAR DIR 244 239 236 231 234 238 242 240 248 255 260 252 254
SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.6 25.4 23.6 23.5 24.2 21.3 20.6 20.1
POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 133 129 127 120 109 97 97 102 88 87 85
ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 122 118 116 108 97 87 88 94 82 82 81
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -55.4
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 6 5 7 5 6 5 5 3
700-500 MB RH 73 73 70 65 60 51 45 43 43 42 45 44 47
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 11 13 10 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 54 81 89 77 65 67 46 67 41 53 64 76 86
200 MB DIV 106 124 107 62 25 20 0 -4 -24 0 13 44 41
LAND (KM) 33 1 -14 107 228 427 205 17 73 282 533 974 1172
LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.5 23.6 25.9 27.9 29.7 30.9 31.7 32.1 32.7 34.2
LONG(DEG W) 87.1 87.2 87.3 87.3 87.3 86.9 85.9 83.8 80.7 76.7 71.7 65.9 59.1
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 12 11 12 14 16 19 23 27 29
HEAT CONTENT 7 2 5 1 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -23. -30. -36. -38. -39. -42.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. -1. -8. -14. -17. -20. -21. -23.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. -1. -8. -14. -19. -22. -23. -26.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 05/31/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 05/31/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY