* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALVIN EP012007 05/31/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 32 35 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 32 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 21 20 20 20 19 19 19 18 18 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 6 3 1 6 12 14 14 18 16 16 12 SHEAR DIR 148 148 149 167 232 128 130 159 165 166 162 135 125 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 139 139 139 139 140 140 141 141 141 140 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 52 52 46 49 49 50 53 57 58 60 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -39 -53 -56 -55 -47 -50 -39 -25 -15 -9 -3 -1 200 MB DIV 52 50 28 3 -9 -12 -33 -34 -36 -31 -12 -16 -10 LAND (KM) 1229 1264 1299 1323 1348 1386 1457 1500 1550 1641 1777 1868 1921 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.3 12.1 11.9 11.4 10.7 10.2 10.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 115.8 116.2 116.6 116.9 117.4 118.1 118.5 119.0 119.7 120.8 121.5 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 21. 24. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 5. 7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -3. 0. -2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 1. 3. 2. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 05/31/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 05/31/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY