* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* BARBARA EP022007 05/31/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 43 48 53 55 53 51 50 52 52
V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 43 48 53 55 53 51 41 34 30
V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 33 33 34 36 39 41 43 37 32 29
SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 12 9 5 9 8 12 18 20 11 11 11
SHEAR DIR 137 137 132 165 144 120 128 113 131 129 137 134 162
SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 165 166 166 165 162 161 158 157 156 157 160
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -52.4 -51.8 -52.6 -51.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 8 7 9 6 10 8 10 7
700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 71 68 64 60 60 58 58 57 60 61
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR 46 53 45 28 21 21 12 27 26 34 29 39 44
200 MB DIV 93 88 52 34 49 54 73 101 96 95 48 89 100
LAND (KM) 268 290 311 294 277 212 180 150 94 35 -14 -23 -7
LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.1 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.1 16.2
LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.5 96.4 96.3 96.2 96.0 95.9 95.8 95.9 96.1 96.6 97.3 98.3
STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 5
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 26. 31. 33. 34. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 16. 16. 15. 13. 15. 15.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 18. 20. 18. 16. 15. 17. 17.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 BARBARA 05/31/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 BARBARA 05/31/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY