* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALVIN EP012007 05/31/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 19 20 23 24 25 26 29 34 37 41 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 19 20 23 24 25 26 29 34 37 41 V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 SHEAR (KTS) 7 5 4 0 4 10 12 12 18 13 10 6 7 SHEAR DIR 150 149 149 302 99 109 129 151 169 178 169 138 66 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 141 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 53 48 46 48 45 49 49 54 56 59 58 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -47 -47 -49 -50 -52 -58 -49 -39 -31 -28 -18 -15 200 MB DIV 51 29 2 -20 -23 -22 -9 -36 -18 -15 -18 -24 -21 LAND (KM) 1289 1317 1344 1371 1397 1451 1497 1553 1619 1685 1770 1830 1884 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.2 10.7 10.4 10.1 LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.3 116.5 116.8 117.1 117.7 118.3 118.9 119.5 120.1 120.7 121.2 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 11. 14. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 2. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 14. 17. 21. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 05/31/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 05/31/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY