* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BARBARA EP022007 05/31/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 44 49 54 55 56 52 51 53 54 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 44 49 54 55 56 52 41 34 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 32 34 36 39 41 43 36 31 29 SHEAR (KTS) 13 10 10 6 5 10 9 16 18 21 14 14 11 SHEAR DIR 132 125 144 172 149 137 146 121 122 122 124 129 163 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.2 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 166 165 165 164 160 157 157 157 156 156 155 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 8 10 9 11 9 11 9 10 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 65 61 55 54 51 53 55 55 58 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 6 7 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 32 24 24 12 28 26 24 24 22 30 31 200 MB DIV 80 49 26 32 56 55 71 53 79 59 80 73 69 LAND (KM) 317 301 285 273 262 214 131 96 78 42 -12 -25 -31 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.5 14.0 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.9 16.1 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 95.6 95.6 95.5 95.3 95.2 95.2 95.3 95.5 95.9 96.7 97.2 97.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 1 2 4 4 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -1. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 16. 19. 16. 15. 16. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 20. 21. 17. 16. 18. 19. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 BARBARA 05/31/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 51% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 BARBARA 05/31/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED