* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 06/01/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 36 34 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 35 30 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 21 24 20 17 16 16 15 SHEAR (KTS) 21 20 24 27 39 46 50 45 33 35 24 20 22 SHEAR DIR 249 255 247 228 227 230 232 244 266 272 267 274 270 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.9 26.2 25.0 25.0 22.9 22.0 21.0 20.7 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 145 136 117 106 107 94 90 87 85 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 138 134 124 105 96 97 86 84 81 79 77 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -51.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.6 -53.7 -54.7 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 5 5 4 5 4 6 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 80 77 74 70 64 59 48 46 41 46 46 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 16 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 84 83 91 93 91 96 119 71 68 20 -4 -35 200 MB DIV 107 89 106 94 73 38 21 -15 -41 2 0 15 6 LAND (KM) 251 166 77 0 85 159 -72 165 512 657 1000 1268 1411 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.3 21.1 22.3 23.4 25.6 27.7 29.2 30.0 31.0 31.7 32.7 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 85.0 84.8 84.5 84.3 84.1 83.3 81.7 79.1 75.3 71.1 66.1 60.8 56.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 12 11 12 13 15 18 20 22 20 17 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 4 2 6 4 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -12. -17. -22. -22. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 3. -1. -5. -8. -11. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 9. 3. -2. -7. -10. -13. -18. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 06/01/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 06/01/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY