* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BARBARA EP022007 06/01/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 45 47 46 47 49 49 50 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 43 45 47 46 47 37 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 28 29 31 33 34 35 31 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 3 5 9 11 11 14 16 10 8 9 7 SHEAR DIR 104 132 112 110 113 145 134 146 125 110 94 76 106 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.0 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 167 166 163 157 155 156 156 153 151 152 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.8 -52.2 -53.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 7 11 8 11 8 11 8 11 700-500 MB RH 72 66 63 60 59 54 48 51 57 55 56 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 10 9 9 6 6 5 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 22 7 3 9 4 2 17 11 12 8 16 21 20 200 MB DIV 58 16 28 37 35 51 40 44 67 43 65 57 79 LAND (KM) 325 324 304 273 242 160 71 52 72 44 -50 -82 -68 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.5 15.4 15.6 15.4 15.6 16.4 16.6 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.1 94.8 94.7 94.5 94.4 94.6 94.9 95.1 95.3 95.6 95.9 96.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 1 1 3 3 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 19. 26. 32. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -6. -7. -6. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 15. 17. 16. 17. 19. 19. 20. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 BARBARA 06/01/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 68% is 5.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 BARBARA 06/01/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY