* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL922007 06/01/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 31 34 30 27 24 22 21 19 DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 31 34 28 28 26 23 22 20 DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 21 21 20 18 17 17 18 18
SHEAR (KTS) 29 30 31 39 50 54 54 37 31 27 29 22 17
SHEAR DIR 248 243 225 217 226 234 234 247 246 242 258 243 294
SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.1 25.1 24.5 24.4 22.8 20.0 20.1 19.9 5.5
POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 141 136 126 107 103 103 94 83 84 86 71
ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 130 125 115 97 93 94 87 78 79 82 71
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.4 -55.5 -56.0 -58.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 2 0
700-500 MB RH 78 75 69 63 60 53 48 47 45 52 52 61 62
GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 16 15 13 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 83 92 100 101 91 109 120 144 152 115 63 -59 -65
200 MB DIV 120 113 120 77 43 50 27 27 12 15 39 27 0
LAND (KM) 117 99 68 128 228 86 -26 239 318 645 894 1015 257
LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.4 24.6 27.0 29.4 31.1 32.6 34.0 35.6 36.5 44.9
LONG(DEG W) 85.9 85.6 85.3 85.0 84.6 83.4 81.4 78.3 74.3 69.1 63.5 57.5 51.0
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 12 13 14 15 17 21 24 24 33 48
HEAT CONTENT 2 4 6 8 4 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMD INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 16. 17. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -15. -19. -22. -22. -21. -22.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 6. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 6. 9. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -11.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 06/01/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 06/01/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY