* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 06/01/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 37 38 34 31 30 29 26 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 37 32 32 29 28 26 24 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 30 29 24 25 22 21 22 23 24 24 SHEAR (KTS) 39 42 45 50 51 57 42 36 24 23 23 34 25 SHEAR DIR 232 229 219 221 233 211 226 219 231 225 249 275 291 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.2 25.0 23.4 22.9 22.8 21.9 21.1 21.5 20.0 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 127 117 107 96 94 94 91 88 89 81 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 123 116 107 97 88 86 86 84 81 82 75 72 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -53.2 -53.0 -54.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -55.2 -55.8 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 5 2 3 1 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 70 68 61 60 56 56 55 58 52 54 57 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 15 15 13 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 90 83 53 61 79 98 135 124 165 47 -77 -96 200 MB DIV 118 137 90 63 47 51 63 61 70 52 24 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 117 180 277 254 168 -115 23 84 487 693 761 1012 918 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.6 24.8 26.2 27.6 30.4 32.7 34.5 36.0 37.3 38.7 37.6 38.8 LONG(DEG W) 85.8 85.6 85.3 84.9 84.5 82.6 79.6 75.6 70.4 64.6 58.3 52.6 49.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 15 17 18 21 23 25 24 17 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 2 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -14. -17. -19. -18. -18. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 5. 2. 1. -1. -3. -8. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 4. 1. 0. -1. -4. -9. -18. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 06/01/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 06/01/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY