* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BARBARA EP022007 06/01/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 45 50 53 55 55 55 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 45 50 53 55 46 35 30 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 42 44 48 51 54 47 35 30 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 2 4 8 10 5 11 11 16 7 7 7 11 4 SHEAR DIR 318 38 77 120 126 114 121 125 114 129 75 109 112 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 168 168 166 164 161 159 155 152 151 152 150 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 8 10 7 11 8 12 9 12 9 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 54 50 52 51 52 50 50 52 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -6 -12 -13 -8 -8 -8 -13 -17 -9 2 11 200 MB DIV 42 37 19 25 38 34 32 39 38 32 42 47 33 LAND (KM) 313 279 245 202 159 104 86 58 -18 -68 -54 -74 -83 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 94.7 94.3 93.9 93.7 93.5 93.4 93.8 94.5 95.6 96.1 96.0 96.3 96.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 1 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 20. 26. 31. 33. 34. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 19. 19. 19. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 19. 20. 21. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 BARBARA 06/01/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 BARBARA 06/01/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY