* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BARRY AL022007 06/01/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 46 48 49 49 45 40 38 32 27 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 44 46 48 49 39 34 29 27 21 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 46 45 42 31 30 28 28 29 30 30 31 SHEAR (KTS) 43 43 50 46 48 45 31 34 24 27 25 20 9 SHEAR DIR 230 221 223 226 223 218 224 225 212 240 259 277 276 SST (C) 27.5 26.9 25.9 24.6 23.7 22.5 23.5 22.5 20.8 21.6 20.4 11.5 7.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 124 114 104 98 92 98 93 86 90 84 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 114 104 95 89 84 89 85 80 82 78 66 65 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.6 -55.8 -57.1 -58.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 4 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 64 63 61 56 57 55 52 53 56 67 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 17 20 23 20 18 17 13 14 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR 69 61 37 50 67 61 97 106 138 67 -19 -57 -42 200 MB DIV 129 94 75 49 56 54 104 47 62 54 33 -4 54 LAND (KM) 219 315 234 128 21 4 53 289 592 664 736 466 432 LAT (DEG N) 23.9 25.2 26.5 27.9 29.3 31.9 34.0 35.6 36.9 38.3 39.9 42.7 45.1 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 85.3 84.8 84.1 83.4 81.0 77.2 72.7 67.4 61.6 55.8 51.3 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 16 18 19 21 23 24 22 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 4/ 13 CX,CY: 1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 6. 1. -1. -7. -12. -20. -22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 5. 0. -2. -8. -13. -22. -25. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL022007 BARRY 06/01/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022007 BARRY 06/01/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY