* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 06/01/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 46 48 50 49 45 40 38 31 27 18 15 V (KT) LAND 40 44 46 48 50 41 36 31 29 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 46 45 42 35 30 28 28 29 30 30 31 SHEAR (KTS) 42 44 47 47 48 45 32 34 24 28 27 21 9 SHEAR DIR 230 217 225 226 223 221 225 225 212 242 260 276 274 SST (C) 27.6 27.0 26.1 24.8 23.8 22.9 23.7 22.7 20.9 21.4 21.0 9.3 6.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 125 116 105 99 94 99 94 86 89 88 68 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 114 106 96 90 86 90 86 80 82 81 67 64 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -54.5 -55.9 -57.3 -58.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 4 1 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 68 64 63 61 57 57 52 52 51 54 69 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 17 20 23 20 18 17 13 14 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR 70 62 42 51 67 64 98 111 150 82 -17 -49 -35 200 MB DIV 128 96 74 51 53 52 95 45 43 47 37 -2 54 LAND (KM) 189 283 235 120 36 30 77 275 618 688 764 395 419 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 25.0 26.2 27.6 29.0 31.5 33.6 35.2 36.5 37.8 39.4 43.4 45.8 LONG(DEG W) 85.5 85.1 84.7 84.0 83.3 80.9 77.3 72.9 67.8 62.3 56.2 51.2 47.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 17 19 21 22 24 26 22 17 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 12 CX,CY: 1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -15. -16. -15. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 4. 2. 2. -1. -1. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 6. 1. -2. -8. -12. -20. -21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 5. 0. -2. -9. -13. -22. -25. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 06/01/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 06/01/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY