* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BARBARA EP022007 06/01/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 55 57 60 63 63 62 62 61 60 59 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 55 57 60 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 55 58 62 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 5 7 6 3 6 12 10 10 7 1 1 8 7 SHEAR DIR 22 66 109 78 99 115 132 168 156 304 82 260 263 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 166 165 164 161 157 153 151 149 147 145 144 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 10 9 11 10 12 11 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 60 57 53 52 51 46 50 51 46 45 43 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -6 -9 -10 -9 -10 -2 -21 -13 -4 -17 3 24 200 MB DIV 34 1 0 25 30 10 37 0 35 55 28 30 12 LAND (KM) 236 194 151 116 81 10 -61 -108 -144 -95 -53 -11 -51 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 15.2 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 93.8 93.5 93.4 93.2 93.1 93.0 93.1 93.2 93.4 93.8 94.3 95.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. 15. 14. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 BARBARA 06/01/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 56% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 BARBARA 06/01/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY