* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BARRY AL022007 06/02/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 49 47 48 45 43 42 40 39 33 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 49 38 33 31 31 29 27 29 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 50 48 37 32 32 31 32 30 35 31 40 SHEAR (KTS) 44 39 46 44 51 40 21 16 6 11 20 9 11 SHEAR DIR 226 226 226 216 217 217 222 271 273 204 177 169 207 SST (C) 27.4 26.3 25.0 23.8 23.1 22.7 21.3 17.9 7.9 5.2 4.8 1.8 2.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 119 108 100 95 93 87 78 68 66 65 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 110 100 92 87 84 80 73 67 65 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.9 -53.4 -52.6 -52.6 -54.4 -54.0 -54.9 -55.6 -56.0 -55.8 -56.1 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 4 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 65 63 65 58 62 68 74 73 71 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 16 19 19 20 24 19 15 13 11 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 66 49 47 73 58 93 128 116 157 135 116 104 10 200 MB DIV 67 70 65 90 65 42 85 70 106 66 81 42 31 LAND (KM) 225 239 113 3 -58 -19 0 219 163 -4 70 -7 271 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.8 27.3 29.1 30.9 33.2 35.3 38.2 42.1 45.2 47.5 49.7 51.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.2 84.5 83.8 83.0 82.1 79.6 76.2 72.4 68.5 64.5 60.2 55.9 51.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 18 19 18 17 19 23 23 20 18 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -8. -6. -4. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -12. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL022007 BARRY 06/02/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022007 BARRY 06/02/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY