* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * BARBARA EP022007 06/02/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 53 54 56 58 57 58 58 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 53 45 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 50 44 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 6 10 14 12 15 7 5 4 3 5 6 SHEAR DIR 137 118 131 129 128 128 138 176 140 118 169 325 6 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 164 163 162 160 155 152 152 150 150 149 148 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 10 10 8 12 9 13 10 14 11 13 700-500 MB RH 58 55 54 48 49 49 51 53 50 48 50 52 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 -6 -11 -9 -9 -11 -21 -13 -16 0 9 27 200 MB DIV 3 -5 20 28 34 25 21 19 26 29 25 32 -2 LAND (KM) 144 102 59 20 -19 -51 -85 -104 -110 -131 -128 -88 -114 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.3 16.6 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.1 92.9 92.8 92.6 92.7 93.0 93.2 93.3 93.5 93.8 94.3 95.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 2 2 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 8. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 15. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 BARBARA 06/02/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 47% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 BARBARA 06/02/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY