* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BARRY AL022007 06/02/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 41 40 39 39 40 40 39 38 33 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 37 33 35 34 34 35 35 33 32 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 45 37 33 33 31 31 32 34 36 40 37 SHEAR (KTS) 40 37 42 48 44 26 19 13 15 11 16 31 25 SHEAR DIR 235 221 212 217 225 205 237 234 171 172 212 197 189 SST (C) 26.8 25.7 24.4 24.1 23.5 23.2 20.1 13.5 8.2 5.8 6.0 4.4 2.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 113 103 101 97 97 83 69 66 64 64 63 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 103 94 92 89 89 77 67 64 63 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.1 -52.3 -53.1 -54.0 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.6 -54.9 -56.1 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 60 58 56 59 64 66 66 62 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 53 78 80 71 138 133 110 145 175 170 111 74 200 MB DIV 77 61 100 84 28 67 82 67 56 53 43 50 39 LAND (KM) 278 145 22 -55 -7 12 162 185 145 0 32 79 -28 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.4 27.7 29.2 30.6 33.7 36.7 39.6 42.6 45.1 47.0 48.7 49.9 LONG(DEG W) 84.6 83.8 83.0 82.3 81.5 78.6 74.0 70.8 68.9 66.4 63.6 60.8 57.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 15 16 18 22 22 17 16 15 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 0 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -12. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL022007 BARRY 06/02/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022007 BARRY 06/02/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY