* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BARRY AL022007 06/02/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 40 40 41 38 37 39 40 40 38 32 V (KT) LAND 45 38 38 36 35 30 30 30 29 33 30 33 26 V (KT) LGE mod 45 38 34 36 34 29 31 28 29 33 30 30 38 SHEAR (KTS) 43 37 45 43 37 14 13 3 10 14 28 21 13 SHEAR DIR 226 220 215 221 217 208 281 10 157 165 191 209 261 SST (C) 25.0 24.3 24.2 23.2 23.3 20.8 15.6 9.2 5.9 4.9 2.7 0.2 3.7 POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 102 96 96 84 73 68 66 65 64 64 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 94 93 87 87 78 69 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.3 -52.4 -53.5 -54.3 -53.3 -54.7 -55.2 -55.9 -55.7 -55.1 -56.5 -57.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 65 65 64 63 58 61 68 76 75 72 58 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 22 20 22 22 19 17 15 15 15 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 57 70 63 59 96 138 114 146 130 124 121 61 -50 200 MB DIV 72 109 81 52 59 82 64 60 52 61 50 42 15 LAND (KM) 67 -45 18 100 34 -28 116 19 -160 39 -150 16 338 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 28.5 30.0 31.6 33.1 35.5 38.6 42.2 46.4 49.5 51.7 53.7 54.6 LONG(DEG W) 83.2 82.2 81.1 80.1 79.0 76.6 73.5 70.6 67.9 64.7 60.8 56.5 51.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 18 18 17 18 20 22 21 17 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 0 0 0 9999 0 0 9999 0 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 14 CX,CY: 8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -5. -6. -6. -4. -4. -5. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -5. -5. -4. -7. -8. -6. -5. -5. -7. -13. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL022007 BARRY 06/02/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022007 BARRY 06/02/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY