* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* BARBARA EP022007 06/02/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 19 18 18 20 23 26 30 33 35 39 44
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 32 35 37 42 46
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 34 37 DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 13 12 9 9 9 10 12 16 N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 115 120 136 151 155 158 165 222 242 264 N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 160 158 154 151 148 148 147 146 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 9 8 11 10 13 12 14 12 N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 49 50 48 48 47 43 34 39 42 47 N/A N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -3 -2 -2 -4 -20 -18 -22 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 29 17 6 22 17 15 -2 14 25 11 N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) -49 -96 -143 -194 -177 -88 -33 -11 13 6 N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.8 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.4 N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 92.3 92.2 92.0 91.8 91.6 91.7 91.9 92.1 92.6 93.6 N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 3 5 N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -19. -17. -16. -15. -12. -9.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -11. -10. -7. -3. 3. 6. 8. 12. 17.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. 1. 5. 8. 10. 14. 19.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP022007 BARBARA 06/02/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022007 BARBARA 06/02/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED