* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALVIN EP012007 06/04/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 48 43 41 39 35 32 29 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 48 43 41 39 35 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 37 38 38 36 33 30 26 22 SHEAR (KTS) 4 4 7 4 3 7 13 17 19 17 28 33 36 SHEAR DIR 166 192 168 227 262 240 290 267 260 239 234 230 255 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.3 25.9 25.2 24.7 24.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 136 135 129 127 125 121 114 108 105 103 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 52 51 49 51 46 44 43 43 33 26 22 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 8 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -16 -13 -22 -1 35 38 23 27 14 28 22 200 MB DIV 25 30 33 15 4 7 15 15 23 -3 -48 -60 -93 LAND (KM) 1945 1988 2033 2072 2114 2229 2338 2443 2446 2301 2174 2058 1915 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.3 13.7 13.8 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.0 124.8 125.6 126.4 128.3 129.9 131.6 133.0 134.2 135.3 136.4 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 16. 11. 10. 8. 5. 1. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 18. 13. 11. 9. 5. 2. -1. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 06/04/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 06/04/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY