* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALVIN EP012007 06/04/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 39 38 35 32 30 28 26 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 39 38 35 32 30 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 25 22 20 17 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 7 7 4 2 13 14 21 25 30 28 30 31 SHEAR DIR 175 171 168 143 123 299 287 269 272 278 264 248 247 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.5 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 135 133 128 128 126 122 115 111 106 105 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 53 50 46 51 47 47 47 44 43 40 31 32 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 10 8 8 6 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -23 -23 -26 -17 1 6 30 15 18 17 29 32 200 MB DIV 33 24 26 4 8 9 10 9 4 -18 -23 -53 -47 LAND (KM) 1990 2030 2073 2114 2158 2269 2402 2481 2418 2276 2151 2004 1865 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.8 12.2 12.4 12.9 13.0 13.4 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 123.9 124.7 125.5 126.3 127.1 128.8 130.5 132.0 133.4 134.6 135.8 137.1 138.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 11. 12. 9. 6. 4. 1. -1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 14. 13. 10. 7. 5. 3. 1. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 06/04/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 06/04/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY