* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST EP812007 06/04/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 22 22 22 21 20 26 26 36 40 47 53 59 58 SHEAR DIR 247 241 244 248 243 264 265 249 257 263 264 257 260 SST (C) 24.7 24.4 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.6 23.3 22.9 22.9 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 110 106 104 102 101 98 95 91 90 92 91 90 87 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 30 29 28 31 30 30 29 29 26 21 18 19 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -15 -4 8 23 42 38 43 44 49 47 34 38 200 MB DIV -6 -10 -4 -8 -7 7 -6 -3 -6 -25 -20 -59 -53 LAND (KM) 1389 1441 1497 1557 1621 1740 1896 2014 2132 2240 2089 1932 1809 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.4 18.0 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.1 123.0 123.9 124.8 126.6 128.5 130.3 132.0 133.7 135.1 136.5 137.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. -26. -31. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -20. -26. -32. -37. -41. -46. -49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -21. -28. -34. -37. -40. -45. -47. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP812007 TEST 06/04/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 1.3 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP812007 TEST 06/04/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY