* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALVIN EP012007 06/05/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 36 38 38 33 30 29 28 27 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 36 38 38 33 30 29 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 25 23 21 19 17 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 4 2 3 10 10 20 23 22 19 19 19 SHEAR DIR 156 161 103 66 14 348 312 283 265 260 242 236 238 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.7 26.4 25.8 25.3 24.7 24.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 135 132 129 130 126 120 114 108 107 106 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 50 49 52 49 49 49 50 48 44 42 35 34 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 5 4 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -21 -25 -23 -22 -5 17 19 12 11 15 31 19 200 MB DIV 18 22 13 10 37 12 18 27 9 -17 -29 -66 -45 LAND (KM) 2061 2111 2164 2206 2252 2364 2488 2496 2348 2220 2077 1924 1771 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.5 126.3 127.2 128.0 129.6 131.3 132.8 134.1 135.2 136.5 137.9 139.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 8. 4. 3. 1. 0. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 8. 5. 4. 3. 2. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 06/05/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 06/05/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY