* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * SAMTEST CP802007 06/05/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 30 29 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 19 19 19 23 21 25 23 17 20 18 27 37 35 SHEAR DIR 237 246 247 247 259 270 280 303 348 38 42 28 30 SST (C) 23.5 23.7 23.8 23.8 23.8 24.0 24.4 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.1 24.8 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 96 98 100 100 100 102 106 110 112 114 114 110 104 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 -54.9 -54.5 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 14 14 15 16 17 19 20 23 25 28 29 28 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -15 -18 -20 -14 -16 -13 -19 -44 -58 -84 -115 -135 200 MB DIV -5 -3 3 22 2 -10 -36 1 -42 -9 -29 -9 -17 LAND (KM) 1209 1128 1047 968 893 733 603 500 438 383 431 453 588 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.9 20.4 21.2 22.1 22.8 23.6 24.2 25.4 26.2 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 143.3 144.1 144.8 145.6 146.3 148.0 149.7 151.4 153.0 154.9 156.7 158.4 159.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 2.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -19. -23. -25. -27. -32. -38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 10. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -3. 0. -2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -12. -18. -23. -23. -23. -28. -33. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP802007 SAMTEST 06/05/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 42.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Scaled RI index= 1.8 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP802007 SAMTEST 06/05/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY