* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST AL802007 06/05/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 97 75 55 42 26 27 29 30 31 32 32 31 V (KT) LAND 115 97 75 55 42 26 27 29 30 29 33 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 115 105 96 84 74 59 50 46 43 32 30 34 32 SHEAR (KTS) 68 64 57 62 43 47 31 16 5 16 32 15 8 SHEAR DIR 267 265 275 270 274 227 173 179 316 329 15 42 91 SST (C) 25.0 25.4 24.8 23.8 23.0 19.2 12.6 5.9 5.1 2.8 -0.4 5.0 4.8 POT. INT. (KT) 105 112 107 101 96 81 70 65 63 66 N/A 64 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 101 98 93 88 76 68 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -55.0 -55.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.6 -56.2 -57.0 -56.9 -56.9 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 43 47 51 56 53 54 59 61 53 60 47 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 3 3 5 12 18 18 17 16 15 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -37 -33 3 7 48 116 127 107 -1 -44 67 48 200 MB DIV 11 14 28 27 56 44 51 25 1 -10 24 16 20 LAND (KM) 211 241 230 276 442 427 302 215 37 -26 26 -10 -23 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.8 32.9 34.3 35.6 39.0 42.0 44.6 47.1 49.5 55.1 49.2 50.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 77.4 75.5 73.3 71.0 66.8 62.2 58.0 56.3 57.0 59.1 62.2 63.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 19 21 23 23 23 22 17 12 20 8 13 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 1116 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -13. -19. -32. -46. -60. -70. -77. -79. -81. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR -12. -28. -44. -52. -61. -52. -39. -25. -15. -9. -5. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -8. -12. -14. -12. -11. -9. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -17. -38. -58. -70. -86. -86. -84. -85. -84. -83. -82. -80. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -18. -40. -60. -73. -89. -88. -86. -85. -84. -83. -83. -84. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL802007 TEST 06/05/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 58.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -20.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 2.0 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL802007 TEST 06/05/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY