* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* ALVIN EP012007 06/05/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 30 29 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 30 29 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 5 2 2 12 16 10 15 21 25 32 36 42 36
SHEAR DIR 135 137 301 312 326 290 274 266 248 237 243 235 246
SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.1 24.4 23.9 23.7 23.6 23.5
POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 131 128 125 123 122 113 105 100 98 97 96
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 49 47 48 52 49 52 48 45 42 33 28 28 28
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -22 -16 -5 11 22 34 30 35 25 21 16 0 3
200 MB DIV 5 2 21 21 48 32 6 -2 -10 -14 -41 -23 -2
LAND (KM) 2091 2124 2158 2198 2240 2337 2416 2357 2220 2053 1901 1749 1612
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.8
LONG(DEG W) 126.1 126.8 127.4 128.2 128.9 130.5 132.0 133.5 134.6 136.0 137.3 138.6 139.8
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. 0. 2. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. -3. -8. -10. -13. -17. -18.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 06/05/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 06/05/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY