* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALVIN EP012007 06/06/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 35 35 30 26 21 17 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 35 35 30 26 21 17 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 5 11 9 6 12 14 13 20 23 26 28 26 SHEAR DIR 35 337 344 349 355 280 246 234 228 233 225 229 232 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.4 24.7 24.1 23.9 23.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 132 130 129 125 123 116 109 103 101 101 102 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -55.2 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 52 51 54 55 51 56 49 43 41 36 31 26 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 3 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -6 -4 0 11 24 22 16 19 17 9 8 25 200 MB DIV 15 13 49 53 51 52 23 -1 -16 -26 -18 -41 -23 LAND (KM) 2154 2191 2229 2256 2284 2364 2417 2420 2248 2053 1882 1691 1518 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.5 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 126.5 127.1 127.6 128.2 128.8 130.3 131.7 133.0 134.5 136.2 137.7 139.4 141.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 5. 1. -4. -8. -10. -10. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP012007 ALVIN 06/06/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012007 ALVIN 06/06/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY