* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL932007 06/10/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 41 47 49 49 46 45 43 40 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 34 41 47 49 49 46 45 43 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 37 39 39 36 32 30 27 SHEAR (KTS) 10 5 7 5 4 13 13 27 27 37 36 37 31 SHEAR DIR 70 29 65 93 148 234 247 251 240 253 325 332 334 SST (C) 28.4 27.8 27.1 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.1 25.2 25.7 25.9 27.4 26.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 138 130 120 118 117 110 110 112 120 136 122 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 153 142 129 126 123 114 110 108 128 145 112 101 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -55.3 -55.7 -56.1 -56.5 -55.7 -56.1 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 75 72 68 64 63 62 62 61 54 49 62 67 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 72 77 73 62 27 0 -37 -86 -134 -117 -133 -142 200 MB DIV 26 0 -1 14 26 0 30 12 20 -4 18 -2 5 LAND (KM) 491 603 775 987 1221 1687 1780 1590 1593 1677 856 906 1127 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.5 10.1 11.4 12.9 14.7 16.9 18.5 20.6 22.9 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 18.5 20.8 23.0 25.4 27.8 32.7 37.3 41.6 44.4 45.6 57.9 58.5 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 23 23 23 25 25 24 23 20 13 34 32 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -8. -11. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 22. 24. 24. 21. 20. 18. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 22. 24. 24. 21. 20. 18. 15. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 06/10/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 06/10/07 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING