* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL932007 06/10/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 37 35 33 31 32 34 32
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 37 35 33 31 32 34 32
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 32 32 30 26 23 22 23 26
SHEAR (KTS) 3 3 7 12 18 21 32 36 36 22 6 11 24
SHEAR DIR 40 123 171 230 255 254 254 252 261 245 250 249 244
SST (C) 26.5 25.7 25.8 25.7 25.3 24.7 25.1 25.7 25.8 25.4 24.8 24.9 24.9
POT. INT. (KT) 124 116 117 116 112 107 109 112 112 110 102 104 107
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 123 124 123 117 108 107 107 104 103 90 93 100
200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -55.6 -56.1 -56.6 -56.9 -56.8 -56.8 -56.5 -55.7
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
700-500 MB RH 69 65 63 67 64 61 60 51 47 36 39 41 21
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 68 61 48 30 13 -15 -64 -116 -155 -158 -181 -148 -95
200 MB DIV -13 -3 11 9 -8 12 -3 -9 7 -48 4 -11 15
LAND (KM) 809 1027 1256 1473 1705 1894 1754 1776 1903 2203 2357 2327 2376
LAT (DEG N) 9.3 10.0 10.7 11.6 12.4 14.3 16.3 18.5 20.4 23.0 26.4 25.8 23.7
LONG(DEG W) 23.6 26.0 28.3 30.7 33.1 37.4 41.2 43.8 44.8 43.9 44.5 44.6 41.8
STM SPEED (KT) 25 24 24 25 24 22 19 14 11 15 7 9 17
HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 25 CX,CY: -23/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. -6. -12. -15. -14. -13. -13.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 12. 11. 8. 7. 8. 10. 10.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 12. 10. 8. 6. 7. 9. 7.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 06/10/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 06/10/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED