* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP922007 06/10/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 32 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 32 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 30 28 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 17 14 18 16 14 16 9 7 12 7 4 7 9
SHEAR DIR 67 69 73 82 91 89 86 24 353 2 315 267 238
SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.8 25.9 24.0 22.2 20.7 19.9 19.4 19.0 18.5
POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 148 143 124 104 84 67 59 59 59 59
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 76 78 78 77 76 67 58 50 46 37 34 32 30
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 2
850 MB ENV VOR 56 55 53 58 53 39 30 20 4 12 5 23 9
200 MB DIV 42 48 86 66 40 5 -30 0 -21 -6 -14 -6 -7
LAND (KM) 645 655 656 660 683 621 568 536 569 589 609 624 617
LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.2 15.8 17.7 19.5 21.2 22.5 23.5 24.1 24.8 26.0
LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.7 108.5 109.4 110.2 112.2 114.1 115.8 117.3 118.5 119.5 120.3 120.9
STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 10 12 13 12 11 8 6 5 5 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 7. 2. -7. -14. -20. -23. -25.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 4. -2. -11. -16. -20. -23. -25.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP922007 INVEST 06/10/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922007 INVEST 06/10/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY