* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST EP922007 06/10/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 29 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 29 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 29 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 14 17 18 13 13 15 15 13 14 11 12 11 12
SHEAR DIR 61 63 75 73 67 69 55 43 10 11 351 343 338
SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.6 26.0 24.6 22.9 21.4 20.7 20.5 20.3 20.0
POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 146 140 124 109 92 75 67 64 62 59
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 75 73 67 61 52 45 39 37 31 30
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 3
850 MB ENV VOR 43 42 47 44 39 30 18 7 24 16 45 30 29
200 MB DIV 37 66 51 20 16 -3 -25 -24 -10 -7 -5 -14 -8
LAND (KM) 635 628 627 645 679 642 624 615 681 799 893 947 997
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.5 16.1 17.5 18.7 20.3 21.2 21.7 21.8 22.1 22.5
LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.0 108.6 109.5 110.4 112.2 114.0 115.8 117.7 119.4 120.9 122.0 123.0
STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 6 5 5
FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.2 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 11. 9. 6. 3. 1. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 5. 0. -6. -13. -18. -21. -26.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -4. -10. -14. -19. -22. -26.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP922007 INVEST 06/10/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922007 INVEST 06/10/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED