* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * THREE EP032007 06/11/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 37 37 36 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 37 37 36 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 33 31 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 10 12 10 5 10 10 11 10 11 10 12 SHEAR DIR 64 49 67 85 98 19 3 1 351 350 310 311 284 SST (C) 27.6 27.0 26.4 25.6 24.9 23.2 21.5 20.5 19.8 19.3 19.1 18.8 18.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 134 128 120 113 95 77 66 60 59 59 59 60 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 69 67 64 63 56 49 47 42 38 33 32 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 54 49 49 44 31 24 16 13 21 27 23 -3 -9 200 MB DIV 38 25 27 14 -7 -10 -12 5 -16 -7 -11 4 -10 LAND (KM) 718 743 717 667 636 625 596 661 684 716 778 789 709 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.2 19.9 21.5 22.7 23.8 24.7 25.5 26.3 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.1 111.9 112.7 113.5 115.3 116.9 118.6 120.2 121.3 122.4 122.8 122.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 5 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. -2. -10. -18. -24. -30. -33. -38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. -1. -9. -17. -24. -29. -32. -37. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP032007 THREE 06/11/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032007 THREE 06/11/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY