* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922007 06/11/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 33 32 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 33 32 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 12 12 11 7 9 10 11 11 11 13 17 SHEAR DIR 64 52 68 83 92 39 5 18 345 345 296 299 286 SST (C) 27.8 27.2 26.6 25.9 25.1 23.5 22.0 21.0 20.3 19.7 19.4 19.2 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 136 130 123 115 98 82 71 63 60 59 58 58 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 60 59 53 50 44 42 35 33 31 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 62 60 58 53 42 33 21 27 33 35 29 -1 -22 200 MB DIV 43 30 28 14 -9 -17 -13 6 -11 -12 -14 5 -15 LAND (KM) 779 811 785 745 724 735 731 804 819 869 896 916 883 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.7 19.2 20.6 21.8 22.8 23.7 24.7 25.6 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.6 112.4 113.3 114.2 116.1 117.8 119.6 121.0 122.4 123.3 123.9 123.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 319 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -10. -17. -24. -29. -32. -38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 1. -7. -15. -22. -27. -29. -35. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP922007 INVEST 06/11/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922007 INVEST 06/11/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY