* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * THREE EP032007 06/11/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 38 36 33 29 25 23 20 19 17 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 38 36 33 29 25 23 20 19 17 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 32 31 28 25 22 20 18 16 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 13 13 11 13 14 12 9 8 9 3 4 SHEAR DIR 44 61 73 82 72 39 33 23 7 335 325 332 255 SST (C) 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.4 24.1 23.8 23.5 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 128 124 119 114 108 107 106 104 101 98 95 92 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 64 61 56 54 52 46 41 37 32 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 44 41 37 28 21 10 -2 -5 -4 -12 -29 -34 -51 200 MB DIV 25 24 19 -6 -17 -18 -13 -7 -7 -11 -14 -17 -18 LAND (KM) 755 739 708 694 688 746 867 943 991 1042 1113 1191 1254 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 17.8 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.8 112.3 113.0 113.6 114.9 116.3 117.3 118.1 119.0 120.1 121.3 122.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 3. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP032007 THREE 06/11/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032007 THREE 06/11/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY