* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* THREE EP032007 06/12/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 12 10 12 10 13 17 19 13 5 10 2 6 13
SHEAR DIR 70 68 65 48 32 27 18 15 301 318 262 221 194
SST (C) 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.7 24.4 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.2 22.9
POT. INT. (KT) 119 114 110 108 105 100 100 97 97 95 95 92 89
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 62 59 59 56 54 51 48 45 36 35 28 26 24
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 45 33 25 25 17 3 -1 -4 -15 -31 -34 -45 -47
200 MB DIV 11 -9 -10 -9 -12 0 -11 0 -9 -37 -19 -28 -14
LAND (KM) 654 649 651 680 713 785 863 934 1015 1105 1209 1318 1391
LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.4
LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.1 113.6 114.3 114.9 116.0 117.2 118.3 119.2 120.4 121.6 122.9 124.0
STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 5
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -14. -19. -23. -25. -26. -26. -26.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -12. -18. -23. -24. -24. -24. -24.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP032007 THREE 06/12/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
Scaled RI index= 2.1 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032007 THREE 06/12/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY