* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * THREE EP032007 06/12/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 5 8 9 12 13 15 11 5 5 10 12 N/A SHEAR DIR 77 42 27 28 28 25 29 17 357 113 162 178 N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.2 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.2 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.5 22.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 109 104 100 97 95 93 92 91 89 86 88 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 2 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 54 51 52 48 44 43 36 30 27 22 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 35 28 25 16 15 5 6 -22 -29 -39 -36 N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -16 -14 -13 -13 6 -7 4 -19 -11 -20 -12 N/A LAND (KM) 647 648 660 707 744 829 937 1061 1193 1317 1413 1595 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.9 114.6 115.4 116.1 117.5 118.9 120.4 121.9 123.4 124.9 126.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -21. -25. -27. -30. -31. -30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -22. -27. -27. -29. -30. -28. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP032007 THREE 06/12/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032007 THREE 06/12/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY