* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * THREE EP032007 06/12/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 10 13 13 16 11 9 2 7 14 19 N/A SHEAR DIR 27 26 23 32 12 11 5 350 340 166 170 170 N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.6 23.4 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.4 22.2 22.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 105 101 99 97 95 92 90 88 85 83 85 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 51 52 48 48 43 36 32 28 25 21 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 16 12 4 9 2 9 -7 -23 -27 -28 -28 N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -17 -11 -8 1 -5 -1 -7 -18 -2 -17 -25 N/A LAND (KM) 646 668 699 748 782 872 990 1114 1250 1368 1457 1643 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.3 18.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.5 115.2 115.9 116.6 118.0 119.6 121.2 122.8 124.5 125.9 127.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 9 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -25. -29. -31. -34. -35. -33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -22. -27. -31. -31. -33. -34. -31. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP032007 THREE 06/12/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 1.6 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032007 THREE 06/12/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY