* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * THREE EP032007 06/13/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 22 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 14 14 11 15 8 7 4 11 12 16 N/A SHEAR DIR 36 43 49 44 32 25 9 335 158 176 191 205 N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.8 23.5 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.4 22.1 21.9 22.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 99 96 95 93 91 89 87 85 82 79 83 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -55.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 52 47 48 42 39 34 29 26 25 22 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 14 10 17 17 8 13 -4 -7 -12 -16 -20 N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -11 -16 -4 1 -15 0 -21 -4 -6 -1 -11 N/A LAND (KM) 652 700 735 782 834 952 1074 1206 1324 1426 1523 1703 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.2 19.4 19.6 18.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.4 116.1 116.9 117.7 119.3 120.8 122.4 124.0 125.6 127.0 128.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 9 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -5. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -8. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -32. -33. -32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -6. -8. -15. -20. -26. -29. -30. -30. -32. -29. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP032007 THREE 06/13/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 1.7 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.3 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032007 THREE 06/13/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY