* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 06/15/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 30 33 31 33 29 27 25 22 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 30 33 31 33 26 28 26 23 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 21 20 20 SHEAR (KTS) 23 23 19 15 19 23 29 40 32 31 24 14 14 SHEAR DIR 256 278 284 297 282 318 279 290 276 297 298 303 320 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.7 26.9 25.6 25.2 25.3 25.0 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 144 143 141 135 133 123 110 108 109 106 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 129 130 129 128 123 121 109 98 96 96 94 87 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.8 -54.1 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 11 12 9 9 8 10 7 9 6 7 700-500 MB RH 68 65 61 63 59 60 56 52 46 46 49 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 5 5 7 5 6 4 7 6 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 17 11 9 20 15 3 -7 -63 -65 -118 -104 -109 -117 200 MB DIV 31 7 4 23 11 8 24 -8 28 8 10 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 118 114 109 95 60 97 315 329 167 -80 184 321 449 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.4 20.0 20.5 22.3 24.4 26.7 28.3 29.6 30.8 31.4 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.4 86.4 86.5 86.5 86.6 86.5 85.9 84.6 82.3 79.5 76.5 73.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 5 6 7 10 11 10 11 13 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 5 6 2 6 6 5 0 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -3. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 11. 13. 10. 8. 7. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 11. 13. 9. 7. 5. 2. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 06/15/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 06/15/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY