* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * IANTEST CP822007 06/21/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 30 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 30 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 36 33 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 60 61 57 56 59 52 59 55 47 39 31 32 29 SHEAR DIR 245 249 243 242 241 245 233 235 234 238 242 254 268 SST (C) 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.1 23.1 22.2 21.6 21.3 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 105 106 106 108 109 104 94 84 78 76 71 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.3 -56.4 -56.6 -56.6 -57.6 -57.5 -58.3 -58.5 -58.7 -58.5 -58.1 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 26 25 23 21 20 21 20 22 24 27 22 22 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -43 -44 -44 -29 -29 -38 -58 -77 -132 -165 -143 -124 200 MB DIV 10 15 8 11 -23 12 13 10 0 5 -54 -10 -37 LAND (KM) 528 514 502 498 501 561 702 879 1129 1366 1591 1839 1593 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.3 20.8 22.3 24.3 26.4 28.8 30.7 31.9 32.6 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 149.8 149.9 150.0 150.1 150.2 150.3 150.2 149.9 149.1 147.9 145.9 143.0 139.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 8 11 11 12 10 11 14 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -3. -5. -8. -15. -24. -36. -48. -57. -61. -65. -67. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 20. 24. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -10. -20. -31. -44. -57. -68. -76. -81. -86. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -3. 0. -2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 1. 3. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -3. -5. -9. -19. -31. -45. -59. -68. -73. -79. -83. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP822007 IANTEST 06/21/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 58.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 46.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Scaled RI index= 1.8 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP822007 IANTEST 06/21/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY