* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932007 06/25/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 34 42 48 49 47 42 36 32 27 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 34 42 48 49 47 42 36 32 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 24 26 26 26 24 21 18 15 SHEAR (KTS) 14 13 11 9 7 10 10 12 12 13 15 12 18 SHEAR DIR 83 79 87 109 175 206 254 253 297 288 290 265 271 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.6 29.2 28.0 26.5 26.0 24.7 23.1 22.6 22.1 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 164 160 147 131 125 111 94 88 81 84 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 73 75 73 70 67 64 58 53 49 44 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 -10 -19 -22 -7 4 7 5 8 0 -11 -11 200 MB DIV 78 72 56 9 -3 17 4 14 13 6 -3 19 -17 LAND (KM) 473 489 509 515 563 739 866 1026 1159 1248 1381 1473 1548 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.9 19.4 20.2 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 100.5 102.0 103.5 105.3 107.0 110.8 114.4 117.6 120.4 122.6 125.0 126.9 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 18 18 18 17 15 13 12 11 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 23. 26. 26. 24. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 24. 26. 25. 20. 14. 9. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 28. 29. 27. 22. 16. 12. 8. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP932007 INVEST 06/25/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932007 INVEST 06/25/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED