* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932007 06/26/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 39 44 43 39 33 27 20 15 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 39 44 43 39 33 27 20 15 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 2 4 6 9 13 14 16 17 21 17 15 SHEAR DIR 74 142 136 215 239 283 301 297 285 294 296 301 294 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.6 27.9 26.7 26.0 24.5 23.5 22.7 22.1 21.4 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 158 153 146 133 125 109 98 89 82 72 78 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 69 65 62 55 54 49 46 35 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -34 -18 -9 -10 -1 0 -8 3 -3 -38 -65 -74 200 MB DIV 0 -12 -1 9 12 5 18 15 3 21 -27 -20 -8 LAND (KM) 562 607 662 741 852 940 1094 1228 1379 1442 1498 1534 1597 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.5 18.2 19.3 20.2 21.3 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.7 108.3 110.1 111.8 115.2 118.3 121.2 123.6 125.7 127.2 128.4 128.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 18 17 16 15 13 12 10 8 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 15. 18. 19. 19. 17. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 20. 21. 18. 12. 5. -2. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 24. 23. 19. 13. 7. 0. -5. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP932007 INVEST 06/26/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932007 INVEST 06/26/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED