* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932007 06/27/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 38 36 31 26 21 17 18 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 38 36 31 26 21 17 18 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 23 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 1 3 5 6 15 15 15 17 18 18 20 9 SHEAR DIR 358 173 222 260 267 300 317 280 279 283 272 270 308 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.8 26.2 24.7 23.8 23.3 22.8 22.4 22.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 148 141 134 128 111 101 96 90 85 89 121 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 68 68 61 58 54 49 45 46 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 -12 -5 4 -6 -11 5 7 4 -8 -25 7 200 MB DIV -10 -2 10 11 7 15 7 7 31 15 -10 0 21 LAND (KM) 666 749 863 912 956 1107 1235 1413 1542 1648 1760 1922 2198 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.5 17.3 17.8 18.4 19.1 19.6 19.1 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.9 111.6 113.3 115.0 118.2 121.1 123.7 126.1 128.1 129.8 131.3 130.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 17 17 16 15 13 12 11 9 8 13 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 15. 14. 10. 5. -1. -6. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 18. 16. 11. 6. 1. -3. -2. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP932007 INVEST 06/27/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932007 INVEST 06/27/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY