* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932007 06/27/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 33 32 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 33 32 32 26 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 3 4 5 8 12 15 17 19 17 14 16 20 SHEAR DIR 58 272 278 290 301 310 308 302 309 322 311 293 286 SST (C) 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.0 23.8 23.2 22.7 22.2 21.9 22.2 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 142 136 131 128 114 101 95 89 84 80 82 88 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 67 68 64 61 58 51 50 49 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 3 2 2 3 2 5 5 5 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -9 -2 -4 -7 -4 -21 -8 -4 -22 -33 -42 -37 200 MB DIV 12 12 8 16 10 12 3 26 -5 0 -11 -5 -20 LAND (KM) 852 908 933 972 1035 1153 1291 1445 1552 1680 1815 1957 2113 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.6 19.3 19.9 20.3 20.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.9 114.4 115.9 117.3 120.1 122.5 125.0 127.1 129.1 130.9 132.4 133.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 10. 11. 6. -1. -8. -13. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 12. 12. 6. 0. -7. -12. -15. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP932007 INVEST 06/27/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932007 INVEST 06/27/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY