* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * WESTEST CP832007 06/27/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 38 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 38 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 42 39 33 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 21 24 24 24 26 32 28 40 33 28 23 24 14 SHEAR DIR 216 203 201 203 225 240 245 245 242 245 263 271 284 SST (C) 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.1 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 103 103 103 103 103 104 104 105 107 107 105 101 99 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.5 -55.1 -54.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 35 33 30 25 23 24 25 25 28 25 26 22 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 3 13 11 16 22 3 7 -15 -49 -72 -88 -88 200 MB DIV 22 34 25 4 5 -4 7 -43 0 -29 -5 -29 -4 LAND (KM) 1583 1489 1396 1278 1162 940 754 616 589 649 739 867 919 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.6 19.8 21.3 22.9 24.5 25.7 26.6 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.2 142.0 143.0 144.0 145.9 147.6 149.2 150.4 151.1 151.1 150.3 150.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -12. -18. -22. -24. -26. -26. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -4. -12. -20. -30. -39. -44. -47. -51. -54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -3. 0. -2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 0. -2. -10. -19. -31. -40. -43. -44. -49. -50. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX CP832007 WESTEST 06/27/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Scaled RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP832007 WESTEST 06/27/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY