* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932007 06/27/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 30 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 30 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 3 1 2 3 9 13 16 17 17 13 19 16 18 SHEAR DIR 342 29 351 310 298 321 309 306 314 310 304 293 282 SST (C) 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.4 25.9 24.6 23.8 23.3 22.9 22.4 22.4 22.7 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 132 129 124 110 102 96 91 85 85 88 91 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 66 64 60 61 56 52 50 45 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 2 2 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -5 -8 -8 -8 -16 -19 -6 -16 -19 -35 -47 -50 200 MB DIV 0 4 5 -4 -5 9 13 11 -11 -12 -6 -13 -4 LAND (KM) 911 935 984 1059 1125 1259 1439 1580 1712 1842 1985 2113 2049 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.7 19.7 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 114.5 115.9 117.4 118.8 121.4 124.0 126.6 128.7 130.6 132.4 133.8 135.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. -1. -6. -11. -15. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 0. -5. -9. -13. -15. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP932007 INVEST 06/27/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932007 INVEST 06/27/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY