* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932007 06/28/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 31 30 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 31 30 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 2 6 8 14 16 16 15 13 12 15 18 SHEAR DIR 68 60 2 302 316 328 320 325 313 310 303 286 272 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.2 25.5 24.5 23.9 23.6 23.1 22.8 22.9 22.9 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 131 127 119 109 103 99 93 90 91 90 91 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 70 66 68 66 63 61 58 56 52 51 44 42 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -20 -20 -17 -19 -38 -32 -29 -31 -22 -33 -36 -33 200 MB DIV 6 11 -8 -3 -5 -12 24 14 0 -10 5 3 0 LAND (KM) 903 957 1030 1107 1168 1329 1512 1672 1823 1984 2157 2026 1862 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.0 18.5 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 115.4 116.8 118.2 119.6 122.2 124.9 127.4 129.7 131.8 133.8 135.5 137.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -3. -8. -11. -14. -16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 6. 0. -5. -9. -11. -13. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP932007 INVEST 06/28/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932007 INVEST 06/28/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY