* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932007 06/28/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 34 30 26 23 21 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 35 34 30 26 23 21 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 28 28 27 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 8 9 9 15 16 16 12 17 11 12 18 SHEAR DIR 354 345 360 344 321 308 329 336 317 345 329 314 272 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.4 25.7 24.9 24.3 24.0 23.4 23.0 22.4 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 129 127 120 112 105 102 95 91 84 79 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 62 63 64 60 56 52 49 46 36 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -28 -27 -24 -15 -16 -26 -22 -9 -2 8 0 -6 200 MB DIV 7 3 3 5 18 -7 4 -17 -13 -8 -8 -22 -8 LAND (KM) 937 990 1047 1105 1166 1260 1359 1476 1578 1641 1702 1757 1800 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.9 116.7 117.6 118.4 120.2 122.0 123.9 125.6 127.2 128.5 129.7 130.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. -9. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 5. 1. -2. -4. -8. -12. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP932007 INVEST 06/28/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932007 INVEST 06/28/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY