* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932007 06/28/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 28 28 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 26 28 28 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 8 7 11 12 13 9 16 14 12 14 25 SHEAR DIR 344 14 348 328 309 324 340 344 329 345 328 257 251 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.2 24.8 24.3 23.9 23.6 22.9 22.3 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 128 126 122 115 110 105 101 97 90 83 78 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 64 62 58 59 64 59 57 56 46 50 43 35 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -23 -20 -15 -12 -11 -31 -16 -25 -13 -17 -21 -42 200 MB DIV 12 6 -12 2 11 7 -13 -8 5 -11 -3 -22 -4 LAND (KM) 998 1053 1112 1174 1229 1352 1492 1593 1688 1750 1794 1824 1844 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.4 17.0 17.4 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.0 117.8 118.7 119.6 121.6 123.5 125.2 127.0 128.3 129.6 130.6 131.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMD INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. -11. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP932007 INVEST 06/28/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932007 INVEST 06/28/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY