* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932007 06/29/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 14 14 11 15 20 15 19 15 8 17 26 SHEAR DIR 341 339 328 332 328 343 2 357 349 359 298 253 240 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.6 24.2 23.9 23.5 23.1 22.9 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 122 117 113 110 109 105 101 96 92 89 87 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 64 60 60 58 52 47 46 42 38 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -20 -24 -16 -16 -27 -30 -19 -18 -9 -22 -34 -25 200 MB DIV 3 -9 -2 4 14 7 -6 -7 -10 -23 -11 1 22 LAND (KM) 1066 1136 1199 1264 1336 1510 1675 1803 1937 2025 2101 2157 2114 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.5 119.4 120.5 121.6 123.8 125.9 127.9 129.8 131.3 132.7 133.8 134.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 7 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM CARQ INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP932007 INVEST 06/29/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932007 INVEST 06/29/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY